Little Brother Forum

Source: theoildrum.org

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Peak Oil: As first expressed in Hubbert peak theory, peak oil is the point or timeframe at which the maximum global petroleum production rate is reached. After this timeframe, the rate of production will enter terminal decline. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve. This does not mean oil will suddenly “run out”, but the supply of cheap conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically.

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Tom Whipple/aspo-usa.com/Peak Oil Review/October 8, 2007
Excerpt:

In peak oil circles, the likelihood that world oil exports will peak and then decline faster than world oil production has been discussed, tracked, and generally accepted for some time now. Last week the notion that peak exports may well be near at hand hit the mainstream when Jeffrey Rubin, the chief economist of the Canadian investment bank CIBC, released a report on declining oil exports and began briefing Wall Street groups about his findings.

With the headline grabbing “$100 oil by the end of 2008”, Rubin reported that rising demand in oil exporting countries such as Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia will put pressure on global oil prices in the coming years. He expects exports from OPEC countries, Russia, and Mexico will likely decline by about 3 million barrels per day over the next five years with the biggest drop coming from Mexico, a key U.S. supplier. Rubin believes that of a potential drop in exports of 3 million b/d, 2 million will directly affect US imports. This coupled with very expensive new production such as deep-water and Alberta sands production will lead to $90 oil during 2008 and $100 oil by the end of the year. Thereafter, oil prices will remain in triple digits.

Rubin posits that as one of the few sources of oil still open to private investment, Alberta will gain an increasing share of US oil imports.

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…A global Hubbert peak is inevitable, but its timing has been the subject of debate. Hubbert predicted the peak would occur between 1996 and 2006. Most current estimates place the peak before 2030 (many before 2010), and some authorities believe that it is occurring now. The varied estimates reflect scientific uncertainty in measuring petroleum reserves, lack of standard protocols for reporting, and incentives for governments and private firms not to report their reserves accurately. Advances in petroleum extraction technologies, such as high-pressure steam extraction, and techniques that allow production from unconventional sources such as tar sands and oil shale, have increased recoverable reserves, modestly delaying the peak. Nevertheless, the peak is not far off.

Note: Excerpts from a paper published in JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Sinan Salaheddin, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS/Oct 04, 2007

BAGHDAD - Iraq’s self-governing Kurdish region has finalized a handful of new oil deals, further straining relations with Baghdad, which wants to centralize control of the country’s oil resources.

A spokesman for Iraq’s Oil Ministry, Assem Jihad, denounced the agreements, saying the government has “made it clear not to sign any contract until the new oil law is passed.”

In a statement issued Wednesday on its website, the Kurdistan Regional Government said it had approved four new production sharing contracts with international companies and had sanctioned the construction of two new refineries. (more…)

Randy Fabi/Reuters/September 28, 2007

LONDON - Oil rose above $83 a barrel on Friday and closed in on an all-time high as fund buying, spurred by a weak dollar, provided support.

U.S. crude climbed 54 cents to $83.42 by 10:10 a.m., after gaining $2.58, or 3.24 percent, in the previous session. Oil was recovering from a profit-taking dip earlier this week that knocked prices from a peak of $83.90 hit on September 20. (more…)

Mike Eckel/AP/September 20, 2007

Preliminary tests on soil samples gathered by a Russian scientific expedition indicate that a vast mountain range under the Arctic Ocean is part of Russia’s continental shelf, a government ministry said Thursday.

Russia is one of several countries that have rushed to lay claims to the area where a U.S. study suggests as much as 25 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas could be hidden. (more…)

Worldwatch Institute – August 22, 2007

Washington, D.C.—Canadian tar sands deposits hold an estimated 1.7 trillion barrels of crude oil, second in the world only to Saudi Arabia, but the devastating environmental impact of mining them far exceeds that of conventional oil, according to the September/October issue of World Watch magazine. The energy-intensive process of extracting crude bitumen from the mixture of sand, clay, and silt releases up to three times more greenhouse gas pollution than conventional oil extraction and is wreaking havoc on local forests, wildlife, fresh water resources, and air quality, Dan Woynillowicz writes in “Tar Sands Fever!”

“Everything about the tar sands is big,” Woynillowicz writes, “most significantly its global warming and environmental implications—leading some to now describe the tar sands as ‘Canada’s dirty secret.’” (more…)

Greg Hurst/The Times/September 13, 2007

Britain’s outgoing Ambassador to Washington has accused the Bush Administration of misleading Tony Blair over its much-criticised plans for the reconstruction of Iraq after the invasion of 2003.

Sir David Manning, who leaves his post at the end of this month, said that Britain was left in the dark as Donald Rumsfeld, the former US Defence Secretary, overruled the plans for postwar Iraq drawn up by Colin Powell and the US State Department.

“There were plans made and deployed in the State Department, but in the end the State Department wasn’t allowed to take the job,” Sir David told the New Statesman.

“I did not know that [Rumsfeld’s Defence Department] was going to take over the running of the country. We didn’t have any sense that that was about to be the way postwar Iraq was going to be run.” (more…)

BBC News/September 13, 2007

The US dollar has fallen to new record lows against the euro as investors fret about a world credit crunch.

In European trading, the greenback dropped as low as $1.3927 against the euro, deepening Wednesday’s losses.

The dollar has fallen in the past week, amid hopes that Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in a bid to reassure markets over current credit fears.

Analysts expect rates to fall by between a quarter and half a percentage point when the Fed meets next week. (more…)

Center for American Progress/August 16, 2007

CARE, one of the largest humanitarian organizations fighting global poverty, announced yesterday that it would turn down $45 million in annual financing from the United States government because food grown in the United States under subsidies from the Farm Bill actually depresses the agricultural economies of the countries that receive food aid.

The practice literally robs the poor and gives to the rich.

As The New York Times explains, U.S. food donations compete with local farmers’ products, essentially perpetuating the cycle of poverty: “Under the system, the United States government buys the goods from American agribusinesses, ships them overseas, mostly on American-flagged carriers [which is stipulated by U.S. law], and then donates them to the aid groups as an indirect form of financing. The groups sell the products on the market in poor countries and use the money to finance their antipoverty programs. It amounts to about $180 million a year.” (more…)

Bush doesn’t deny plans for N. American Union, avoids question, ridicules ‘conspiracy theorists’ who believe it
WorldNetDaily/August 22, 2007

MONTEBELLO, Quebec – President Bush today sidestepped a direct question about whether he’d be willing to categorically deny there is a plan to create the North American Union.

Instead, he ridiculed those who believe that is taking place as conspiracy theorists.

The exchange came at a news conference held by Bush, Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon, and Canada’s Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who met at a resort in the rural woods outside of Ottawa, Quebec, to discuss their latest work on the Security and Prosperity Partnership.

After the trio presented their prepared statement about the SPP, several reporters who had been selected in advance were allowed to ask questions. (more…)

CBC(Canada) NewsAugust 21, 2007

Police used tear gas and pepper spray against protesters who were hurling rocks and branches during confrontations outside the leaders summit in Quebec on Monday.

Police arrested at least one protester in the small resort town of Montebello, near Ottawa, where Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush and Mexican President Felipe Calderon to discuss issues including border security and free trade.

The leaders began their talks Monday inside the Fairmont Le Château Montebello hotel, which is being protected by a four-metre security fence and police in riot gear who are patrolling the area on foot, in cars, on motorcycles and in helicopters.

At least 500 protesters took part in a march outside the hotel, carrying signs with slogans such as “No to Americanada.” Others held a peaceful family-friendly rally away from police lines. (more…)