Source: theoildrum.org
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Peak Oil: As first expressed in Hubbert peak theory, peak oil is the point or timeframe at which the maximum global petroleum production rate is reached. After this timeframe, the rate of production will enter terminal decline. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve. This does not mean oil will suddenly “run out”, but the supply of cheap conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically.
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Tom Whipple/aspo-usa.com/Peak Oil Review/October 8, 2007
Excerpt:
In peak oil circles, the likelihood that world oil exports will peak and then decline faster than world oil production has been discussed, tracked, and generally accepted for some time now. Last week the notion that peak exports may well be near at hand hit the mainstream when Jeffrey Rubin, the chief economist of the Canadian investment bank CIBC, released a report on declining oil exports and began briefing Wall Street groups about his findings.
With the headline grabbing “$100 oil by the end of 2008”, Rubin reported that rising demand in oil exporting countries such as Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia will put pressure on global oil prices in the coming years. He expects exports from OPEC countries, Russia, and Mexico will likely decline by about 3 million barrels per day over the next five years with the biggest drop coming from Mexico, a key U.S. supplier. Rubin believes that of a potential drop in exports of 3 million b/d, 2 million will directly affect US imports. This coupled with very expensive new production such as deep-water and Alberta sands production will lead to $90 oil during 2008 and $100 oil by the end of the year. Thereafter, oil prices will remain in triple digits.
Rubin posits that as one of the few sources of oil still open to private investment, Alberta will gain an increasing share of US oil imports.
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…A global Hubbert peak is inevitable, but its timing has been the subject of debate. Hubbert predicted the peak would occur between 1996 and 2006. Most current estimates place the peak before 2030 (many before 2010), and some authorities believe that it is occurring now. The varied estimates reflect scientific uncertainty in measuring petroleum reserves, lack of standard protocols for reporting, and incentives for governments and private firms not to report their reserves accurately. Advances in petroleum extraction technologies, such as high-pressure steam extraction, and techniques that allow production from unconventional sources such as tar sands and oil shale, have increased recoverable reserves, modestly delaying the peak. Nevertheless, the peak is not far off.
Note: Excerpts from a paper published in JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association.
